So no upsets so far, unless you think Houston being Houston is going to be a surprise …
(1) Celtics vs. (4) Cavaliers: So here is the round where we see if LeBron’s new supporting cast is good enough to match a stacked team in a seven game series. They will at the very least have to win one game on the road. Their road record is 16-19 so far, 6-10 against teams .500 or better. I liked what the guys doing the game for TNT last night said when they pulled up the number of wins the Cavs had when trailing entering the fourth. They brought up the fact that Cleveland was 15-24 when trailing, which means that they have been trailing in 39 games this season entering the final quarter. Over half the games. So let’s look at the matchup:
Guards: Boston has Allen and Rondo, with Eddie House, Cassell and Gabe Pruitt off the bench. The Cavs counter with West and Pavlovic starting, and Daniel Gibson, Devin Brown and Damon Jones off the bench. The Celtics have the edge in starters, but Pavlovic can get hot from outside. The health of Booby and the play of Devin Brown will play a large factor in this matchup, but I still like Rondo too much not to tip the scales towards Boston. Advantage: Celtics
Frountcourt: The Celtics start Pierce and KG at forward, Perkins at center. Coming off the bench at forward are Posey, Big Baby and Leon Powe, with the occasional Scalabrine sighting. The Cavs have LBJ and Wally at forward, big Z if he’s healthy at center. Their bench consists of Anderson Varerjao, Joe Smith and Ben Wallace. The Celtics can match up well against the Cavs, better than before, because there is no real low-post scoring threat for him to worry about. With the flight of Gooden, Ilgauskas provides the points and Wallace and Varejao pick up rebounds. Except that nobody on the Cavs can guard KG. He can move to center and allow Big Baby and Powe to run the 4, and they’ll still outplay whoever is guarding them. Joe Smith is a nice shooter, but no big improvement over James Posey. Paul Pierce owns Wally Zczerbiak (who from now on will be refered to by me as ZCZ), and will do a decent job guarding LeBron. Factoring in an amazing performance by LBJ doesn’t overshadow all of the deficiencies of their front line in this matchup. Advantage: Celtics
Prognostication: The Celtics take the first three games. LeBron puts up 55, 12 and 10 in the fourth game and the Cavs squeak by in the fourth game. Boston cleans up its business at home, where their 29-4 home record is second only to Utah. Celtics in 5.
(2) Pistons vs. (3) Magic: So with the Cleveland LeBrons out of the running, let’s see if Orlando can pull off the upset. The season series is tied 2-2, with both the Pistons and the Magic stealing one in the other’s building. The matchup:
Guards: The Pistons start the Dynamic Duo at the guard position, but their bench is a couple of youngsters (Stuckey and Afflalo) and Juan Dixon. This is a sizable improvement over last year’s backups, and this has allowed Billups and Hamilton to get more rest. Both of their minutes are down from last year, and they’ve only missed a combined 3 games this year compared to 17 last year. Orlando starts Jameer Nelson and Keith Bogans, and brings Mo Evans, Dooling and J.J. Redick off of the bench. Don’t think I really need to go into details on this one. Advantage: Pistons
Frountcourt: The Pistons go deep. Prince and McDyess start at forwards, with Sheed starting at center. Their bench starts with Maxiel and Jarvis Hayes, and goes to Theo Ratliff, then Amir Johnson, then Walter Herrmann … They might have one of the best little big guys off the bench in Maxiel, and Ratliff is still averaging 2 blocks a game, albeit in 16 games. As long as Jarvis Hayes doesn’t shoot any more threes, they should be good. Orlando counters with Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis at forward, and Superboy at center. Their bench consists of Brian Cook, Adonal Foyle, and then a bunch of scrubs to pick up tiny minutes. Orlando’s big three average 38 minutes a game, so this might not be that much of a problem. The problem is that Tayshuan Prince was tailor-made to take out guys like Hedo. Rashard Lewis would need to step up huge, and I have a hard time seeing that happen. Can Detroit contain Dwight Howard? They can throw enough people at him. Detroit’s team defense can prevent him from getting the touches necessary for a 40-point game, so Sheed won’t have to worry so much about playing the kind of defense he used to play when he was with the Blazers trying to stop Shaq. Frankly, I don’t know if he still can. Maxiel’s energy and athleticism tip the scales. Advantage: Pistons.
Prognostication: Detroit gets whatever it wants offensively from the perimeter, penetrates, maybe even gets Howard into foul trouble. Orlando is depending on monster games from their big three, and Tayshaun will be able to neutralize either Lewis or Turkoglu. That means the other one has to be able to take on a bigger role. Superboy will show up, but it won’t be enough. Pistons in 4.
Stay tuned for Western Conference, Round 2 …
Lysol
with.
